🔗 Share this article

A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."

Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate

The team have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.

Debates range over national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got something to gain from the other's positions."

Appeal for More Extensive Debate

Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."